Why the cattle herd is unlikely enter a rebuild in 2026
Much has been discussed in industry circles and events in recent months, around the big question of whether the herd will rebuild in 2026.
There was a very slight increase to cattle on feed numbers over the September quarter in 2023, according to the ALFA feedlot report. Cattle on feed lift by just 0.1% to the second highest volumes on record at 1,258,377 head.
Meanwhile national feedlot capacity increased by 1.4% over the quarter to 1,576,858 head, pushing the feedlot utilisation ratio from 81% during the June quarter to 80% presently.


The seasonal pattern for COF volumes highlights the steady nature of the industry currently with feedlot numbers holding steady. Compared to the five-year average levels for the September quarter the current COF numbers are running nearly 16% above the September average. Assisting the steady cattle volumes in feedlots presently was the reduced marketing over the September quarter.
Feedlot turnoff over the September 2023 quarter declined by 10.2% from the levels marketed in June to see just 618,017 head of cattle turned off. Compared to September quarter 2022 turnoff volumes are down by 13.4% this season and 14.4% lower than the average September turnoff based on the last five years.

Much has been discussed in industry circles and events in recent months, around the big question of whether the herd will rebuild in 2026.
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