Northwest of NSW seasonal challenge a contributor to weaker market environment

In the past month we’ve seen cattle prices across all categories in both direct consignment and auction systems ease by 8-15%, depending on where you’re looking. 

Importantly, the dry weather throughout central eastern Australia over the past six to eight months has really demonstrated how important the northwest NSW / southern Queensland region is for both cattle demand, and importantly supply.

At a supply level for example, MLA reported saleyards had its combined highest monthly cattle yarding during March 2026 on record, or since the NLRS began reporting. Of that record, the northern NSW yards of Scone, TRLX Tamworth, Gunnedah, Armidale and IRLX Inverell contributed 31% of that total national record, or 125,000 head in the month of March.

Figure 1. National MLA reported cattle yardings hit new records in March 2026.

Underpinning this weakened interest in light cattle and a reduction in producer confidence, which is impacting the broader market, has been the fact that at a production level, producers in these regions are going to go without a forage crop for winter in 2026. The ability to plant a forage crop is critical to seeing the operations carry cattle through the key feed base pinch point of winter … for many producers this year, that won’t be the case due to the dry weather and lack of sub-soil moisture.

Figure 1 below demonstrates how poor the sub soil moisture profiles are in the month of April for these key winter forage growing regions.

Figure 2. Australian Water Outlook root zone soil moisture map of NSW.

I don’t think we can underestimate the influence the central eastern Australian region can have on market performance, both in good and bad times. And I believe we’re seeing that influence play out substantially at present, due to this region being in drought, it's unable to provide the usual seasonal demand for light cattle, adding to other pricing pressures we’re seeing.

StoneX Feeder Cattle Forward Contracts update

With the spot prices for feeder cattle experiencing downward pressure, forward contracts traded with StoneX for feeder cattle have also eased substantially. In January to March, producers were contracting Queensland feeder cattle out to the middle of the year 10-20c/kg lwt above where current spot transactions are taking place.

The bids and offers in the market on cattle into the end of 2026 reflect the weaker pricing environment happening in the spot market. Contracts placed has grown steadily since the launch of the contract in late January, with producers across the east coast engaging with StoneX to manage risk and profit.

The Bottom Line

• Record saleyard yardings for the north west of NSW in March 2026 sum up the environment those producers are faced with, as the destock continues.
• The northwest region and lack of demand is playing an important role in market performance at present
• Producers continue to engage StoneX in larger numbers, enquiring about its Feeder Cattle forward contract to better manage risk.

Ripley Atkinson's experience in the red meat industry and current role at StoneX developing price risk management tools for Australia’s sheep and cattle sectors ensures he delivers unique, whole of supply chain insights and analysis across key factors such as prices, supply, production and the drivers of the sheep and cattle cycles.

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