With the commercial cattle sales finished for the year, the results of AuctionsPlus’ commercial cattle offerings have been tallied for Q4. We look at how regions have been buying and selling during the second half of 2023.
Q4 listings fell by 1%, with a quarter of listings in Central Western and the N.W Slopes and Plain regions
Q4 buying activity jumps significantly across Victoria
Q4 Listing activity rallies in SW Victoria and Lower SE South Australia
NSW and QLD remain listing and purchasing titans, but VIC makes major moves in Q4
Yesterday, as primer for the Q4 AuctionsPlus Power Rankings Report, we explored the Q3 Power Rankings. During the third quarter, commercial cattle offerings fell by 30% and, unsurprisingly, NSW and QLD dominated both listings and purchases.
Q4 was interesting. Recent rains and improved market confidence has led to a rally in prices. Since bottoming at 349 c/kg in October, the EYCI has risen by 188c c/kg at the time of writing.
Offerings also appeared to be lifting, albeit online listings never looked to eclipse those of Q4 2022. Last week, weekly cattle yardings at national saleyards were their highest in four years. In the same week AuctionsPlus recorded its largest weekly offering of the year, with 23,775 cattle listed.
These developments have delivered some surprises to the Q4 AuctionsPlus Power Rankings.
Commercial cattle offerings during Q4 totaled 120,529 head, almost unchanged from the previous quarter but 39% less than Q4 in 2022.
While listings did not change greatly, clearance rates improved by almost 10 percentage points. This suggests that buyers have come back to the table this quarter, thanks to more positive climatic conditions.
The top ten listing regions for the Q4 are outlined in the table below. As expected, NSW and Queensland dominate commercial cattle listings, with NSW really pulling away in terms of spots in the top ten.
NSW Northwest Slopes & Plains was pipped from the top rank by Central Western NSW but the big mover was Southwest Victoria, which leapt five places to be the fifth ranked listing region by head.
Top Listing Regions
Southern and Metro Queensland continued to be the dominant buyer in Q4, picking up 22,105 head in the quarter to add to the 16,533 they bought in Q3 - a rise of 34%. As noted earlier, Queensland regions had the opposite season to most others with good summer rain and were sitting on low herd numbers so were looking to stock, particularly with heifers.
The figure below illustrates the share of listings and purchases by state in Q4 2023. NSW kept the lion's share of listings and purchases as in Q3 but there was some movement in the contribution of QLD. Last quarter Queensland listed 28% of all cattle and accounted for 38% of purchases. This quarter, Queensland reduced their activity to 33% having their share displaced by increased buying activity from Victoria and South Australia.
Key points
Q3 listings fell by 30%, although over half of all listings were in four regions of NSW and QLD
Q3 buying activity jumps in Central and Western QLD
Q4 commercial cattle numbers are set to be revealed Friday 15 December. Early indications suggest the familiar race between well-known NSW and QLD regions might be different.
Commercial cattle offerings during Q3 totaled 121,589 head, a 30% fall from the previous quarter and 28% fall from Q3 in 2022. Clearance rates remained almost unchanged from the previous quarter.
The decline in listings is a combination of a number of reasons; falling prices, lack of feed and a sharp fall in confidence as traders were unsure of the appetite on the other side. Between the start of July and end of September the EYCI fell by 199 c/kg or 36%.
The top ten listing regions for the Q3 are outlined in Table 1. As expected, NSW and Queensland dominate commercial cattle listings, with four regions in the two states accounting for over half of total listings in Q3.
NSW's Northwest Slopes & Plains took the crown for most listings in Q3 but second and third placed Central Western NSW and Southern & Metro Queensland were only marginally behind. The minor difference between these regions highlights how close the race could be for Q4.
While western Queensland listed marginally more cattle against the previous quarter, all other ranking regions had fewer listings. The most significant falls were found in the Northern Tablelands, Monaro/South Coast/Southern Tablelands area and the Hunter region.
Eight of the top Ten Purchasing Regions were also featured in the top ten listing regions, demonstrating how these regions are active in both buying and selling commercial cattle.
Southern Queensland was the clear leader, purchasing over twice as many head as the next biggest purchaser, Riverina NSW.
Purchasing activity fell in all regions, except Western and Central QLD which jumped by 18% and 12% respectively. Those regions had the opposite season to most others with good summer rain and were sitting on low herd numbers so were looking to stock, particularly with heifers.
The figure below illustrates the share of listings and purchases by state in Q3 2023. While NSW makes up the largest share of listings, QLD has a disproportional share of purchases.
In Q3 QLD listed 28% of all cattle but accounted for 38% of all cattle purchases, with that restocking demand appearing to be a factor.
