United States driving beef exports higher

The United States has extended its lead away for the other three major beef export markets. The 25,761 tonnes of beef shipped to the US was the highest monthly volume since June 2020. Total Australian beef exports were the highest they have been since December 2019 and are expected to stay elevated.

Key Points

• US extends its lead as the top beef export destination for August and the year-to-date

• Total beef exports now well above the five-year average and expected to continue that way

• Asian export markets remain flat with little upside in the short-term

Slaughter numbers have reached their highest level since May 2020 at 127,337 head in the week ending 1 September.

The Australian Dollar is currently at about US64c, the lowest point since May 2022 other than a quick drop at the end of 2022. The lower dollar combined with low domestic cattle prices has greatly improved the competitiveness of Australian beef in the global market, particularly in the US import market.

Export volumes totalled 102,351 tonnes shipped weight in August, up 5% on July 2023 and up 11% on August 2022.

Figure 1: Monthly beef exports 2021 – August 2023. Source: DAFF

The US was the top export destination for August by a long way, with 25,761t shipped, 71% more than last year. South Korea, China and Japan were all flat from July to August with 17,304t shipped to South Korea, 17,114t shipped to China and 16,868t shipped to Japan. These volumes are flat to lower than this time last year for all three markets.

Figure 2: Monthly beef exports by destination 2021 – August 2023. Source: DAFF

There is a clear cyclical pattern in Australian beef exports to the US as seen in Figure 3. This is driven by higher production in Australia and lower production in the US and vice versa. Exports to the US are expected to soar in the next few months, as US production declines and Australian production continues to rise.

Figure 3: Monthly beef exports to the United States, 1988 – August 2023