Cattle prices on AuctionsPlus have risen for three consecutive weeks, clearance rates are climbing, and producers in drought-affected northern NSW are beginning to hold stock rather than sell in a shift that points to returning confidence across the market.
The week ending May 15 recorded a final clearance rate of 93%, a level not reached in 27 weeks, with the end of auction clearance coming in at 81%, up 2 percentage points on the previous week. Robust post-sale negotiations closed the gap to that final figure.
The AuctionsPlus Young Cattle Indicator (AYCI) sits at 494c/kg liveweight, up 11c on the week and tracking in the top 25% of historical values. The last time prices were this strong was 26 weeks ago. Buyers are also paying meaningfully above reserve, with the value over reserve (VOR) coming in at $136, up $15 on the week and sitting in the top 25% of recorded levels.
Offering size is tightening alongside those price gains. Just over 12,000 head were listed in the week ending May 15, the smallest offering on the platform since February, with this Friday's sales shaping up to be smaller again.
One of the more telling shifts in this week's data is what's happening in northern NSW. The region has been amajor source of turnoff in recent months, with drought conditions forcing producers to move cattle they would ordinarily retain. Local buying had fallen as low as 19% in recent weeks, well below the region's long-term average of 64.8%.
Last week, that figure climbed to 46.3%. It remains below the long-term average, but the direction has clearly changed, with producers beginning to hold more of their own cattle and in some cases purchasing locally. That suggests confidence, or at least seasonal outlook, has shifted enough to stop the sell off. The decisive and swift sell-off was also coming to its natural conclusion as producers carried out drought preparedness plans. It had started to spread south, but this appears to have halted also.
Victoria and South Australia, where well-timed rain events have lifted conditions in many areas, accounted for 39.2% of northern NSW purchases last week, the second highest level recorded on AuctionsPlus this year. That southern demand has been absorbing much of the supply coming out of the north, underpinning both clearance rates and price levels across the platform.
It's worth keeping in perspective, though. So far in 2026, stock moving from northern NSW into Victoria and South Australia is averaging 17% per week, whereas in 2019 that figure averaged 26% across the full year. The current interstate flow is notable, but it remains a long way short of the sustained restocking behaviour seen during that earlier recovery period.
Recent rainfall across parts of the eastern seaboard has added to the improved sentiment, and for producers who have been selling under pressure, rain changes the equation quickly.
AuctionsPlus has developed a rainfall tracker covering 1,239 towns across Australia, drawing on Bureau of Meteorology data, which allows producers and buyers to assess seasonal conditions in their own area and in regions they're considering purchasing from.
The tracker shows that northern NSW recorded serious rainfall deficits through March, and by April those deficits had spread significantly into southern Queensland and parts of Victoria. So far in May, much of the eastern states has returned to above-average rainfall, though dry pockets remain and the rain has been patchy in places, with many locations within otherwise well-watered zones missing out entirely.
One good rain event doesn't reverse months or years of depleted soil moisture, but it has shifted the mood for many producers and opened the door to decisions that weren't viable a few weeks ago.
Check out how your region is performing in the tracker below, as well as other regions you may be wanting to purchase cattle from.
The combination of firming prices, improving seasonal conditions and rising buyer competition is creating an environment where holding cattle, or purchasing, is becoming a more viable option for those with the feed to back it. Whether that momentum holds will depend largely on how the seasonal outlook develops over the coming weeks.
Natasha Lobban: May 21, 2026
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