It may be mid-October but there is a cold outbreak heading for the southeast

As we end the week there is a significant pool of cold air over the Bight that is ready to pounce on the southeast. You can see it by the speckled cloud on the satellite. This is going to have several impacts over the weekend and early next week.

That speckled cloud indicates not just cold air, but energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Energy is a key component to our weather systems - and the impact can be felt thousands of kilometres away.

Firstly, the cold outbreak moves across the southeast on the weekend. Felt in Tasmania from Saturday (with snow as low as 600-700 metres), and on the southeast mainland on Sunday. Sunday will deteriorate as it goes on and it'll be freezing by the end of it.

Meanwhile, moisture builds over the interior of the country and the energy from the cold outbreak is the catalyst it needs to turn that moisture into widespread rain. It will cross the interior, southern Queensland and northern NSW later in the weekend into early next week.

That's two weather systems working together - but the results remain very separated. Southern NSW, northern Victoria and much of SA won't see any significant wet weather, most are set for less than a millimetre, stuck in the gap between the two systems.

Satellite, radar and damaging wind warning zones on Friday morning.

Potential rainfall over the next week.

Day by day rainfall from Friday to Monday.‍

The cold outbreak cools things down in the east, extending right up to southern Queensland early next week - but the next burst of heat quickly begins in the west.

This one will skip the southwest corner - no big spikes of heat there yet.

Instead it will steadily move eastwards across the country, significantly raising temperatures, before the next cool change arrives a few days later.

Weekly rain potential (compared to average) for week 1 and 2.

‍As we look ahead to the following week, there is the chance of a new burst of rain in the north, spreading down into southern WA and SA. This is one to watch beginning Monday 20th October - especially to see if it heads further eastwards after that.

For my full analysis don't miss this week's video update, perfect if you have 12 minutes to spare:

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