Showers on the way for eastern seaboard as temperatures are forecast to rise above average again

The high pressure dominance continues over the weekend and into next week leading to drier and more settled weather over the coming five days.

The new blocking high over southwest WA this week will slowly move to the east this weekend and into next week and likely will be over the southeast from later next week.

An upper trough is likely to form over SA and this may begin to work into moisture over northern Australia leading to scattered showers and the chance of thunder from Tuesday, at this time, rainfall forecasts are degrading related to this system.

Those along the eastern seaboard can probably look forward to a period of showers and onshore winds, rainfall highest along the immediate coast and ranges facing east.

Otherwise, those looking for higher rainfall in the next seven days, it is lean under the drier airmass and stable weather influence of the large upper and surface ridge.

The point of contention weather wise is where does that large scale high end up southeast of Australia next week? Does that end up further towards New Zealand allowing the troughs and frontal weather to come through WA and into SA with more widespread rainfall or does the block win out, leading to less rainfall for the ag sector of Southern Australia.

After this cold blast over recent days in the southeast states, temperatures are forecast to rise to above average levels again from mid to late next week as winds tend offshore. That long duration above average temperature signal does exist through to late May over parts of NSW, Queensland and through to northern SA and the southern NT.

Model watching is going to do your head in over the coming weeks. Noting that this time last week, the weather was looking more active across the west and southern areas of the country for this weekend, only for the active weather to clear further. east and the next active wave of weather to be pushed back again by another week.

This cycle will happen more often than not moving forward, where we have a lot of activity showing up in the modelling for the day 10-15 range, for only that active weather signal to be pushed back or disappearing. Until that signal falls within the seven-day forecast window, chances of widespread major rainfall looking lean across the nation, despite the hype and social media clickbait. Do not be lured in.

And this is a symptom of the climate weather space shifting towards El Nino which is happening at a steady rate at the moment in the Pacific Ocean.

I will see you next week.

Karl Lijnders is the founder of Weather Matters, which provides short, medium and longer-range weather forecasts, updated daily, with a focus on Australian ag and what the weather and climate means to you.

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