Cyclone Errol is heading towards the northwest coast, and should make landfall over Easter.

The rain from this one isn't heading to Queensland like we saw last time, that produced huge areas of flooding, that is still evident today with six catchments in Major Flood.

Instead, this one is heading south.

The situation as of Thursday 12pm AEST

Much of the southwest (away from the west coast) has done very well to begin the season with some parts seeing more than 50mm, and a few more than 100mm.

Conversely, the past week continued dry for those drought areas of the southeast.

Rainfall totals over the past week

Back to Cyclone Errol and his moisture - that is going to push southwards, and meet up with low pressure.

This should spread rain across the south!

‍Day by day rainfall projections for the next 10 days

Another burst of rain in the southwest (again away from that western coast), then crossing SA, VIC, TAS and NSW.

The main low travels a touch too far south to get huge falls from this one in our drought areas - and this set up doesn't help those further inland, the rain dries up as it heads over the ranges. Then the rain increases again when the low hits the Tasman Sea - again, heavy falls on the coast but not inland.

Rainfall projections - total - over the next week

I walk you through all the detail for the next week in this video, including what we can see in week two, and the longer term outlook for the seasons ahead:

New call-to-action

 


Jane’s Weather provides hyper local weather forecasting based on the consensus of all the weather models, using Machine Learning and AI to calibrate the forecast to conditions at your farm. We include updates on temperature, rain and wind, along with evapotranspiration for efficient water usage, frost risk, growing degree days and a detailed spraying forecast customised for any property in Australia. 

Settled conditions this week, drier outlook continues to build

Settled conditions this week, drier outlook continues to build

It is a quiet weather week across the country, with a new large high moving into place, this leading to settled conditions this weekend and next...

Read More >
Multiple rain rounds for the southeast, but a drier turn is coming

Multiple rain rounds for the southeast, but a drier turn is coming

Another well timed upper low and trough working through a warm and moist airmass triggered by a positive SAM phase continues to headline the week of...

Read More >
Ridge rebuilds after a big rain week, with El Niño declared

Ridge rebuilds after a big rain week, with El Niño declared

Great to see a nice full tank of moisture for much of SA and southern WA following a significant week of rainfall with a slow moving low pressure...

Read More >