Is that widespread rain on the horizon?

Pressure patterns are changing and the Indian Ocean is shifting into gear, with the potential for a widespread rain system in a few weeks.  

I'm paying particular attention to the pressure map today, because there is something important going on.

High pressure has moved north for the winter - the centre is over the Carnarvon to Alice Springs to Brisbane type latitude - and this positioning lets all the Southern Ocean cold fronts hit southern Australia.

Some peak nearby and bring a decent rainfall, others slide and bring just a little. Some have a feed of tropical moisture and deliver big widespread rain.

Friday morning weather map.

Over the next week, we'll have front after front cross some part of the south - and there is no end in sight to this weather pattern.

There is an anomaly - next Monday/Tuesday - a cold pool moves over SA and western NSW delivering a nice 5-10mm. Not huge, but nice.

Potential rain over the next week.

Early indicators for the following week (beginning July 22) show the potential for Indian Ocean moisture to sweep down across the country - in the form of a 'juicy northwest cloudband'. If this connects with one of the fronts (or a trough or low) it will do very nice things for those in its path. One to watch.

Potential rain in the following week (beginning July 22).

This tropical connection is helped by a driver known as the MJO - which may be nice enough to do a 'drive by' (cross the green zone) during mid July.

The MJO is nearing Australia in mid July (the green zone).

Finally, I can't not show the global SSTA map - how much warmer or cooler the top of the ocean is.

The blue in the Indian Ocean box continues to grow and that continues to make me smile, as I'm sure it does for you.

This is the instigator of more 'juicy northwest cloudbands', and the potential for widespread rain. It also helps the highs move out of the way, something we were cursed with last year that stopped the rain and produced the drought.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA).

‍Don't miss the full update where I walk you through each of these graphs and more - perfect if you have precisely 16 minutes to spare.

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