May highly likely to be drier than average for much of the country

May 2025 has the potential to be very dry for the vast majority of the country.

• ENSO: Neutral and starting to show signs of heading close to El Nino later in winter and spring. The last El Nino had limited drying impact for Australia as the waters off Queensland didn’t cool down - but there are signs of a cooling well off the coast now and this is something to watch closely over the next month or two.

• Indian Ocean: currently near Positive which can limit the amount of moisture being sent towards Australia. Forecasts show Negative or near Negative is in our future, but not until later in winter or spring. This would help send moisture our way. 

• SAM: mainly Positive, limiting the impact from cold fronts over southern Australia. SAM was positive for the majority of last year, and continued that way over the summer and into autumn. 

• MJO: weak and not sending any tropical moisture our way.

READ MORE: Patchy conditions across the east as winter plantings gain pace

The outlook for May from BoM indicates that much of the country is likely to have a drier than average month

‍As we head into early winter there are signs of a slight weakening of the dry signal, but not by much.

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The outlook for May to July from BoM has equal odds (ie 50/50) mixed with a dry signal

‍Things improve in the outlook as we head into mid winter, with the Indian Ocean potentially starting to send juicy northwest cloudbands towards the south:

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The outlook for June to August from BoM has a wetter signal appearing mixed with equal odds (ie 50/50).

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For a full analysis, settle in for my video (about 13 minutes long this week) where I walk you through each of the drivers and what their impact is likely to be over the next few months. 

Jane’s Weather provides hyper local weather forecasting based on the consensus of all the weather models, using Machine Learning and AI to calibrate the forecast to conditions at your farm. We include updates on temperature, rain and wind, along with evapotranspiration for efficient water usage, frost risk, growing degree days and a detailed spraying forecast customised for any property in Australia.