Over the next week most of the action will be in the southeast.
If you're concerned about what that means for the AFL Grand Final, do rest assured that the timing is great - we are in a break. Grand Final Saturday is likely to feature lots of sunshine with a mild top of 19C or 20C. That's after the potential for a dramatic change on Friday afternoon (showers and the risk of storms), but that clears out quickly.
Satellite and radar on Friday morning (and a warning for Damaging Winds only in alpine areas).
A series of cold fronts is crossing the southeast, and that'll feature two 'cut-off' lows early and mid to late in the week, to enhance the activity even further.
First of all - there is no proper connection to tropical moisture, so the rain doesn't extend very far inland. But if you're in Tasmania or much of southern VIC (not central and east Gippsland), or southeastern SA, then it's a good 25 to 50 mm of rain (more in Tasmania).
A big weather system heads for Queensland but barely brushes the coast - that rain is going to stay well offshore.
The southwest is blocked by high pressure so they are only brushed by the southeast systems on their way past.
Potential rain over the next week.
The latest modelling for the Pacific Ocean Index has arrived, and a few more models have headed near/across the threshold for La Nina, while the rest are on the La Nina side of Neutral or purely Neutral.
It is important to note that the Australian threshold is more negative than the American threshold, so you will hear the Americans talk about La Nina a lot more than BoM does.
BoM has now finally declared the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole that we have been in since late July (they wait until we've been in it for eight weeks before letting you know that it occured). That will slowly Neutralise as we head through the rest of Spring, as the monsoon takes over.
Pacific Ocean Index has some models crossing the threshold into La Nina.
The potential La Nina would mean that the Pacific as a whole encourages additional moisture to be pushed towards Australia. We already have warmer than average waters around the top half of the continent, and incredibly warmer than average water in the Tasman Sea - so we already have an enhanced source of moisture and the potential La Nina just increases that further.
But as always, that is just one part of the rainfall equation. It will lead to above average rainfall - but only for those in the path of low pressure, as you need both moisture and instability to work together to bring rain. We know about the moisture for the months ahead, but not where the lows are likely to be.
For all of this and more, and if you have nine minutes to spare, don't miss my video update:
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