Widespread rain is likely to spread across much of the nation, especially the still drought affected parts of the southeast.
Who is ready for rain?
A new widespread weather system is kicking off in the west today with a big band of showers and thunderstorms.
This is part one and will move eastwards, reaching the eastern states on Sunday into Monday (after it warms up in the southeast after the latest cold outbreak).
Satellite and radar at midday on Friday (AEST).
Part two involves a feed of tropical moisture coming down from the northwest - a juicy, northwest cloudband - meeting up with the second wave of low pressure. Depending on where the low moves, we are set for a widespread soaking rain event, with rain across most states and territories, persisting for a few days.
This is most likely to be a system that affects the western side of the ranges - it is not an east coast system.
If the low moves across the southeast then eastern SA, Victoria, western NSW and parts of Tasmania will do very well.
Look for the guidance to show a tighter spread of rainfall potential as it approaches, for higher confidence in the actual path of the low.
Potential rainfall over the next week.
This weather system is yet another great example of what can occur when we are in a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
We've now been in one for six weeks, and BoM declares it a Negative IOD year when it has been eight weeks.
The index is incredibly negative, ie very strongly negative:
Indian Ocean Dipole - current state is Negative, encouraging moisture from the Indian Ocean.
The IOD naturally ends as we go into Summer, and our focus shifts to what the Pacific is doing.
This index has also been heading southwards. A few models like La Nina (all from USA) but others keep it in Neutral. A tighter spread here would give us better confidence that the Pacific will also encourage moisture to pour in as we go through Spring and Summer - but the warmer than average water off eastern Australia also plays a big role in providing that moisture.
Pacific Ocean Index - current state is Neutral, forecasts are for Neutral to La Nina. La Nina encourages moisture from the Pacific Ocean.
So, we have lots of moisture, and the question - as always - is do we have the low pressure to turn that into rain?
For an indepth look at all of these graphics and more, if you have 8 minutes to spare, don't miss my video:
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