Out of season rain is likely to spread through Western Australia’s wheatbelt beginning this weekend. Storms increase next week over eastern Australia, and may become significant widespread rain for northeast NSW and southeast Queensland.
A dairy farmer is dead and hundreds of thousands of properties remain without power in Victoria after storms knocked down transmission towers and lines.
The trough responsible for damaging storms is now likely to stall over a large part of the east. Expect day after day of thunderstorms brewing around the trough line.
Seasonal forecasts — like suggestions a La Niña is on the way — are not designed for major business decisions. But it is good to be aware of what is driving weather.
Weather and climate forecasting cannot provide all the answers. The value of a particular forecast strongly depends on what decisions need to be made and what economic circumstances decisions are made in.
The frequency and intensity of rainfall events and flooding are increasing. That means more and faster developing droughts that can cause crop failure and destructive wildfires within weeks or months.
Once the rain clears the southeast, a period of settled weather follows. The monsoon has arrived in the north, and will continue to encourage a lot of wet weather there.
