Over the next week and a half we’re likely to be stuck in a persistent pattern where the rain falls over the west and far north of the nation, and the rest miss out. That’s according to every one of the different weather models that make up the guidance for what is most likely to occur day by day, hour by hour at your specific location.

But an alternative forecast from the BOM tells a very different story, where increased rain is shown crossing the interior of the country and spreading down into the southeast across NSW.

What gives?

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Out of season rain is likely to spread through Western Australia’s wheatbelt beginning this weekend. Storms increase next week ove...
A dairy farmer is dead and hundreds of thousands of properties remain without power in Victoria after storms knocked down transmis...
An active trough crossed Victoria on Tuesday, the perfect recipe for heat, damaging winds, increased fire danger and thunderstorms...
Out of season rain is likely to spread through Western Australia’s wheatbelt beginning this weekend. Storms increase next week over eastern Australia, and may become significant widespread rain for northeast NSW and southeast Queensland.
A dairy farmer is dead and hundreds of thousands of properties remain without power in Victoria after storms knocked down transmission towers and lines.
The trough responsible for damaging storms is now likely to stall over a large part of the east. Expect day after day of thunderstorms brewing around the trough line.
Far from an El Niño drought, last month brought rainfall 47% above the long-term average.
Seasonal forecasts — like suggestions a La Niña is on the way — are not designed for major business decisions. But it is good to be aware of what is driving weather. 
Weather and climate forecasting cannot provide all the answers. The value of a particular forecast strongly depends on what decisions need to be made and what economic circumstances decisions are made in.
The frequency and intensity of rainfall events and flooding are increasing. That means more and faster developing droughts that can cause crop failure and destructive wildfires within weeks or months.
Tropical Cyclone Kirrily is likely to form this week off the Queensland coast and cross the coast on Thursday around the Townsville area.
Once the rain clears the southeast, a period of settled weather follows. The monsoon has arrived in the north, and will continue to encourage a lot of wet weather there.

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